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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

TitleGlobal, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2015
AuthorsForouzanfar, M. H., Alexander L., H Anderson R., Bachman V. F., Biryukov S., Brauer M., et al.
Corporate AuthorsGBD 2013 Risk Factors Collaborators
JournalLancet
Volume386
Issue10010
Pagination2287-323
Date Published2015 Dec 05
ISSN1474-547X
KeywordsEnvironmental Exposure, Female, Global Health, Health Behavior, Humans, Male, Metabolic Diseases, Nutritional Status, Occupational Diseases, Occupational Exposure, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Sanitation
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

DOI10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2
Alternate JournalLancet
PubMed ID26364544
PubMed Central IDPMC4685753
Grant ListMC_U137686851 / / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
091758 / / Wellcome Trust / United Kingdom
MC_U147585827 / / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
UL1 TR001079 / TR / NCATS NIH HHS / United States
R01 ES021446 / ES / NIEHS NIH HHS / United States
RG/08/014/24067 / / British Heart Foundation / United Kingdom
MC_U147585819 / / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
P30 ES000260 / ES / NIEHS NIH HHS / United States
MR/L003120/1 / / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
099876 / / Wellcome Trust / United Kingdom
MC_UP_A620_1014 / / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
/ / Intramural NIH HHS / United States
ES00260 / ES / NIEHS NIH HHS / United States
R0I ES021446 / ES / NIEHS NIH HHS / United States
T32 HD057822 / HD / NICHD NIH HHS / United States
RP-PG-0407-10184 / / Department of Health / United Kingdom
UL1 TR001425 / TR / NCATS NIH HHS / United States
092654 / / Wellcome Trust / United Kingdom
MC_UU_12011/1 / / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
5T32HD057822 / HD / NICHD NIH HHS / United States
MR/K006525/1 / / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
G0400491 / / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
KL2 TR001088 / TR / NCATS NIH HHS / United States
MC_U147585824 / / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom

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